Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.786337 2.982781 3.193769 3.438565 3.716491 4.024315 4.393988
2025-02-23 2.492583 2.754823 3.052527 3.420062 3.868227 4.406191 5.115884
2025-03-02 2.298832 2.594538 2.942945 3.392140 3.969264 4.706419 5.757186
2025-03-09 2.155266 2.471215 2.854184 3.365075 4.050007 4.972298 6.381668
2025-03-16 2.049973 2.381727 2.793624 3.359594 4.147756 5.262266 7.084879
2025-03-23 1.982254 2.331676 2.775464 3.402929 4.310340 5.659776 8.035028
2025-03-30 1.888623 2.240844 2.695417 3.351484 4.327018 5.834461 8.648367
2025-04-06 1.805552 2.158170 2.619570 3.297544 4.330892 5.984533 9.248768
2025-04-13 1.718015 2.064652 2.522840 3.205129 4.264644 6.006564 9.602324
2025-04-20 1.682204 2.038111 2.515821 3.241870 4.402650 6.395279 10.827444
2025-04-27 1.658939 2.026825 2.528532 3.307660 4.592979 6.907996 12.531231
2025-05-04 1.635574 2.013791 2.537277 3.366942 4.777710 7.443614 14.556613
2025-05-11 1.586845 1.963968 2.491184 3.338479 4.809943 7.687956 15.935732
2025-05-18 1.543637 1.920136 2.451630 3.317582 4.853472 7.965260 17.598113
2025-05-25 1.502011 1.876768 2.410436 3.290770 4.882649 8.216484 19.358213
2025-06-01 1.463546 1.836376 2.371649 3.265019 4.910622 8.470549 21.349525
2025-06-08 1.432795 1.805899 2.346305 3.259807 4.977208 8.831289 24.171638
2025-06-15 1.415266 1.793881 2.348378 3.300999 5.139832 9.473007 29.277694
2025-06-22 1.377511 1.750777 2.300381 3.252095 5.113355 9.609687 31.781955
2025-06-29 1.341246 1.708787 2.252543 3.200793 5.077213 9.714308 34.319879
2025-07-06 1.298396 1.655888 2.185848 3.112832 4.956471 9.557806 34.796502
2025-07-13 1.285243 1.646853 2.187963 3.147813 5.102709 10.218341 43.507294
2025-07-20 1.278632 1.647278 2.204916 3.210416 5.316977 11.161395 59.756701